* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 63 61 51 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 63 61 51 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 61 57 45 35 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 13 17 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 1 1 2 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 201 196 187 225 211 244 257 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 25.6 24.6 23.4 22.0 21.1 20.8 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 120 109 96 81 71 68 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 63 59 54 50 43 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 22 21 18 13 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 29 29 32 22 -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 41 47 21 16 9 -2 -4 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 4 10 -2 -4 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 541 502 466 444 429 298 199 165 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.8 27.2 28.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.0 115.7 116.2 116.7 117.0 116.9 116.6 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -20. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -8. -18. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. 1. -9. -20. -34. -46. -49. -52. -53. -55. -57. -59. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.0 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 9.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##