* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 51 55 60 66 69 77 80 85 88 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 51 55 60 66 69 77 80 85 88 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 39 41 44 48 54 60 69 79 88 94 96 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 14 12 8 4 2 1 3 1 4 5 7 11 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -2 -2 1 6 4 6 2 0 -5 -2 -5 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 284 273 277 273 272 296 326 257 185 180 215 107 197 197 245 262 281 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 126 130 133 139 143 143 148 165 165 166 167 164 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 119 120 124 127 133 136 136 140 155 151 148 146 139 136 135 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 49 49 46 52 55 59 59 61 64 63 64 63 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 54 63 70 74 68 57 61 47 50 49 33 27 12 22 4 9 -9 200 MB DIV -2 -20 -17 -21 1 17 -6 31 9 19 14 22 2 25 11 35 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 0 1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 2175 2086 2002 1910 1820 1668 1580 1461 1330 1097 924 845 851 898 976 1029 1083 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.9 40.1 41.4 42.8 45.4 48.1 50.7 53.2 55.7 58.1 60.3 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 11 8 15 22 24 30 36 28 38 41 64 59 41 40 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -13. -12. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 26. 29. 37. 40. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 37.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.7% 8.9% 7.4% 6.5% 9.9% 10.3% 14.9% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 1.7% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.2% 4.0% 4.0% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 51 55 60 66 69 77 80 85 88 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 41 45 48 51 55 60 66 69 77 80 85 88 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 38 42 45 48 52 57 63 66 74 77 82 85 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 35 38 41 45 50 56 59 67 70 75 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT