* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 47 50 55 60 66 70 75 82 87 92 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 47 50 55 60 66 70 75 82 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 37 37 38 40 44 50 58 67 77 87 96 102 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 15 16 11 7 7 5 2 2 3 1 2 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 -2 0 0 6 5 5 3 -1 0 0 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 277 278 290 279 279 283 313 360 330 350 164 206 293 203 160 213 209 SST (C) 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.9 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 125 127 129 130 131 132 139 140 151 154 165 165 168 167 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 118 120 122 123 124 126 132 134 144 146 154 152 151 147 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 50 51 53 50 54 55 57 58 60 62 61 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 51 59 65 63 54 54 44 51 50 46 37 25 34 34 53 200 MB DIV 37 22 -10 -21 -15 1 23 -1 37 5 22 21 24 23 54 29 55 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 0 -4 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -3 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1899 2028 2158 2115 2019 1818 1669 1579 1482 1347 1149 968 872 864 923 999 1077 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.5 19.1 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.3 37.5 38.8 40.1 42.7 45.2 47.7 50.2 52.7 55.1 57.4 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 14 18 18 13 17 21 26 31 39 36 38 42 45 68 42 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -12. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 30. 35. 42. 47. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 35.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 7.2% 5.1% 4.3% 3.3% 6.8% 7.8% 13.2% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 3.2% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 2.8% 3.7% 6.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 47 50 55 60 66 70 75 82 87 92 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 37 39 42 47 50 55 60 66 70 75 82 87 92 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 37 40 45 48 53 58 64 68 73 80 85 90 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 35 40 43 48 53 59 63 68 75 80 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT