* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 51 55 60 65 69 73 77 84 90 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 51 55 60 65 69 73 77 84 90 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 36 37 39 44 50 57 65 72 79 87 97 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 19 17 15 10 7 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 0 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 4 0 -1 -1 0 2 6 4 4 0 -1 0 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 272 276 277 291 281 268 299 358 353 304 298 269 301 244 43 204 237 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 125 128 129 130 132 135 139 145 151 159 162 164 165 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 119 122 122 123 126 129 133 138 143 150 150 149 149 151 149 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 55 52 53 50 49 53 53 55 59 59 60 57 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 45 54 59 65 58 58 51 42 44 52 37 38 30 42 39 200 MB DIV -6 33 23 -6 -11 -13 15 11 12 1 0 4 8 9 10 36 29 700-850 TADV 6 9 5 2 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1779 1915 2048 2172 2069 1860 1669 1530 1457 1339 1231 1040 888 791 759 776 837 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.7 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.1 36.4 37.8 39.1 41.7 44.2 46.6 49.1 51.5 53.9 56.1 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 14 18 19 12 25 33 33 39 42 34 39 52 47 63 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 44. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 33.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 4.9% 4.3% 3.3% 6.7% 7.3% 12.5% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 4.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 51 55 60 65 69 73 77 84 90 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 39 42 46 51 55 60 65 69 73 77 84 90 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 37 40 44 49 53 58 63 67 71 75 82 88 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 34 38 43 47 52 57 61 65 69 76 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT