* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 36 31 30 26 25 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 36 31 30 26 25 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 38 34 31 28 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 7 13 12 15 19 22 25 30 36 35 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 7 6 0 3 -1 -4 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 346 337 321 308 301 281 268 259 255 258 254 244 227 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 126 130 131 125 128 128 123 122 121 125 128 125 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 21 22 21 21 21 21 22 24 28 32 32 34 37 36 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 1 2 1 13 26 33 30 32 28 40 26 26 16 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -22 -18 -17 -23 -33 -5 20 18 27 -1 13 3 -17 -50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 4 1 -5 0 5 7 3 2 5 6 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1305 1401 1500 1603 1708 1934 2146 1883 1642 1432 1245 1080 919 749 579 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.7 126.8 128.0 129.2 131.7 134.3 136.8 139.1 141.1 142.9 144.5 146.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -14. -15. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -28. -32. -34. -37. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 524.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##