* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 25 27 29 33 37 41 47 52 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 24 21 18 14 10 7 7 6 6 8 4 8 8 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 2 3 2 -2 0 0 5 2 0 5 -1 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 249 260 269 273 281 294 300 297 292 284 288 303 293 246 208 210 195 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 126 127 127 130 131 130 139 146 150 150 150 153 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 119 120 122 122 125 126 125 134 142 144 143 141 144 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 63 62 60 57 60 55 59 59 61 59 59 58 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 38 35 37 65 59 65 59 58 54 57 58 69 60 54 39 200 MB DIV 25 7 -14 -6 25 6 -6 -8 19 -13 25 14 13 16 23 8 26 700-850 TADV 10 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1455 1586 1718 1854 1991 2045 1833 1629 1456 1347 1247 1076 967 834 672 594 586 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.8 32.0 33.3 34.6 35.9 38.5 41.2 43.7 46.3 48.8 51.3 53.6 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 7 10 16 10 32 18 29 51 45 32 38 52 75 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 30.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.8% 5.5% 4.5% 3.6% 6.1% 5.8% 11.4% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 3.7% 17.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.1% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 2.5% 3.1% 9.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 24 25 30 32 35 39 43 47 51 54 58 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 20 25 27 30 34 38 42 46 49 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT