* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 38 36 32 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 38 36 32 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 35 34 33 33 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 29 25 25 26 18 20 17 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -2 1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 262 274 277 273 291 305 320 326 307 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 149 148 146 144 146 147 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 121 118 118 116 113 116 117 118 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -49 -49 -48 -70 -71 -93 -52 -33 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 8 -19 -14 11 -29 -17 -12 -18 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -7 -3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 218 232 238 245 269 279 269 259 231 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.1 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.8 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.2 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.3 77.0 76.8 76.7 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 76.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 47 51 51 51 47 46 47 49 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.1 77.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.80 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.4% 9.9% 7.4% 6.6% 8.3% 8.4% 11.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.6% 3.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.9% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 39 38 36 32 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 35 33 29 27 26 26 26 25 24 24 24 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 31 29 25 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 20 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 22 18 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT