* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 40 40 40 39 38 36 35 33 30 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 38 37 36 34 33 31 28 25 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 25 26 23 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -7 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 257 264 265 264 271 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 147 145 145 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 118 117 114 114 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 6 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 60 61 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -49 -60 -46 -39 -60 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 42 13 8 19 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 1 2 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 20 13 7 2 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.6 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.5 80.3 80.2 80.1 80.0 79.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 24 23 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.9 80.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.5% 8.4% 6.1% 5.3% 7.3% 6.6% 10.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 38 37 36 34 33 31 28 25 24 24 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 38 36 36 35 34 32 31 29 26 23 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 34 32 32 31 30 28 27 25 22 19 18 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 24 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT