* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 57 54 50 46 43 42 42 40 39 35 37 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 57 54 50 46 43 42 42 40 39 35 37 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 57 54 49 45 40 37 35 33 31 28 25 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 1 0 7 7 4 3 6 11 18 21 23 31 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 0 1 1 1 0 -5 -1 2 8 2 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 194 197 201 162 102 1 10 21 316 279 249 247 235 238 260 253 256 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.3 24.6 25.0 25.2 24.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 124 125 125 127 128 125 124 125 122 116 108 112 115 107 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 39 35 31 29 27 25 27 29 32 35 38 42 45 42 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 16 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 3 7 11 -3 -6 -1 2 25 35 37 43 41 38 34 24 200 MB DIV -7 4 -1 -16 -25 -27 -12 -21 -16 -3 14 38 32 2 -7 -4 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 1 5 4 6 7 15 22 25 20 30 17 12 LAND (KM) 824 849 875 938 1003 1152 1328 1527 1730 1944 2110 1954 1779 1630 1470 1315 1167 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.0 119.3 120.0 120.7 122.6 124.9 127.3 129.6 132.0 134.1 136.1 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -5. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -28. -30. -31. -35. -33. -33. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.2 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 735.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##