* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL102016 09/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 43 48 49 48 54 46 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 43 48 49 48 54 46 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 40 41 41 42 47 45 40 38 37 37 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 36 38 29 28 24 19 25 32 48 60 50 33 27 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 4 3 -1 -5 -3 -3 12 18 9 6 3 11 21 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 211 220 223 210 209 229 234 235 227 203 205 217 244 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.1 25.7 22.1 14.8 11.9 12.7 12.2 12.1 10.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 137 138 136 135 118 116 94 75 71 70 68 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 123 122 121 120 106 105 87 72 69 68 65 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -52.4 -51.4 -50.1 -48.9 -49.3 -49.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 1.3 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 54 56 55 52 51 53 47 46 51 54 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 16 21 19 16 22 21 19 21 21 19 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 10 17 15 39 39 -3 68 174 140 106 63 107 79 80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 22 47 38 75 35 37 64 80 46 54 55 49 22 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 17 19 22 8 8 6 69 49 -90 -71 -5 44 -76 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1580 1596 1622 1677 1742 1599 1254 938 899 1280 1244 826 646 495 491 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 32.2 35.5 39.2 43.6 48.5 52.9 56.7 59.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.1 52.6 53.0 53.3 53.6 53.3 51.3 47.8 42.5 35.6 28.7 22.1 16.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 16 21 26 32 33 29 23 17 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 23 16 16 14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -27. -35. -41. -48. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 2. -2. 4. 3. -1. 2. 1. -3. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 9. 8. 14. 6. -7. -12. -20. -32. -45. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.8 52.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 10.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 6.7% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102016 IAN 09/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102016 IAN 09/13/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 43 48 49 48 54 46 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 41 46 47 46 52 44 31 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 38 43 44 43 49 41 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 38 37 43 35 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT