* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 79 75 66 60 54 52 52 51 50 49 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 79 75 66 60 54 52 52 51 50 49 49 47 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 81 76 71 61 54 48 45 43 41 40 37 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 10 11 6 6 4 4 5 4 6 10 15 17 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 0 3 1 0 0 4 13 5 6 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 196 198 187 178 140 119 43 45 82 198 250 228 230 234 231 238 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.3 24.6 25.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 125 124 126 126 131 127 130 127 126 125 116 109 117 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 48 43 36 29 26 25 25 27 30 34 37 31 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 21 21 19 19 17 17 18 17 17 16 15 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -19 -21 -15 6 18 15 13 12 31 39 50 42 37 56 29 200 MB DIV 31 17 9 13 4 0 -8 -26 3 -4 10 6 14 2 4 -7 -24 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 3 11 9 20 20 29 17 10 LAND (KM) 937 918 899 897 895 971 1114 1277 1466 1683 1872 2032 2135 1944 1738 1526 1332 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.0 119.0 119.2 119.3 120.2 121.8 123.8 126.1 128.6 130.8 132.6 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 3 6 9 10 11 11 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 2 1 2 0 2 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. -32. -33. -35. -38. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -30. -36. -38. -38. -39. -40. -41. -41. -43. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.0 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 683.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##