* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 89 87 83 75 66 61 59 57 59 59 60 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 90 91 89 87 83 75 66 61 59 57 59 59 60 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 88 84 79 69 62 57 53 50 50 49 49 48 47 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 9 8 5 4 4 6 5 1 4 3 11 18 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 -1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 139 171 170 194 170 175 108 42 42 53 151 17 286 260 249 264 258 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.5 26.9 26.1 26.1 25.6 24.9 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 128 127 127 126 128 133 129 133 124 124 119 113 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 50 48 41 34 29 27 27 28 29 35 39 40 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 22 21 21 18 20 21 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -14 -25 -15 -18 3 18 23 22 11 14 21 28 42 43 47 29 200 MB DIV 56 37 6 11 16 4 -10 -45 -10 -3 -13 -5 8 -2 13 -10 -20 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 4 0 5 11 14 9 10 LAND (KM) 1000 976 952 938 923 950 1059 1210 1367 1560 1758 1949 2102 2028 1809 1583 1378 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.2 119.2 119.3 119.3 119.8 121.0 122.7 124.7 127.1 129.4 131.6 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 4 7 9 10 11 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 4 4 1 1 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. -31. -32. -34. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -3. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -15. -24. -29. -31. -33. -31. -31. -30. -29. -30. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.4 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 22.2% 19.4% 15.3% 11.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.9% 7.1% 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##