* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 71 78 85 92 93 86 75 69 65 61 58 56 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 55 64 71 78 85 92 93 86 75 69 65 61 58 56 56 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 74 78 82 84 82 76 72 69 66 63 61 60 56 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 3 2 7 5 9 6 8 10 13 9 5 3 3 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -2 -8 -3 0 2 0 1 -1 1 5 10 2 0 SHEAR DIR 126 199 162 136 120 133 106 109 83 82 86 104 123 13 284 279 257 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 143 141 140 138 135 135 133 135 133 134 130 127 121 116 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 57 53 48 39 32 29 26 24 22 24 24 27 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 23 25 24 27 25 23 23 24 24 23 22 22 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 0 -1 -7 -15 -6 7 26 37 43 47 52 60 65 58 54 200 MB DIV 29 44 44 52 31 10 6 -2 14 -48 -6 -7 -2 -7 -13 -14 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 3 4 0 0 9 21 19 LAND (KM) 1106 1096 1092 1079 1068 1037 1032 1059 1145 1293 1450 1663 1876 2081 2050 1892 1725 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.6 119.1 119.4 119.7 119.9 120.2 120.7 121.7 123.3 125.4 128.1 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 6 9 11 13 12 10 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 14 14 16 15 13 10 5 4 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 23. 30. 37. 38. 31. 20. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 15.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 15.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 12.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.8% 74.7% 73.3% 63.0% 49.7% 47.6% 47.9% 0.0% Logistic: 67.7% 64.6% 61.1% 55.0% 38.4% 34.2% 4.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 24.0% 37.6% 12.5% 8.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.8% 59.0% 49.0% 42.2% 30.2% 27.5% 17.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##