* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 39 39 36 35 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 39 39 36 35 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 213 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 21.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 78 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.4 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 67 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1851 1704 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 40.5 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.0 163.0 161.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -8. -16. -22. -24. -26. -29. -33. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -17. -22. -28. -35. -43. -56. -67. -79. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.2 165.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.3 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.3 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##