* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 86 85 82 72 62 57 52 50 49 51 52 54 55 55 57 V (KT) LAND 80 71 72 66 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 73 65 67 65 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 11 16 23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 282 218 201 202 208 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.3 27.8 30.4 30.5 28.0 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 149 144 171 172 146 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 5 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 63 57 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 20 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 42 53 50 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 49 43 71 73 52 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 6 11 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 -12 0 7 66 -157 -341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.4 24.7 26.2 27.6 30.6 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.2 111.6 111.3 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 12 6 23 24 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -16. -21. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 5. 2. -8. -18. -23. -28. -30. -31. -29. -28. -26. -25. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.1 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 26.4% 21.9% 18.6% 12.1% 14.3% 9.7% 8.1% Logistic: 4.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 9.5% 7.9% 6.3% 4.0% 4.8% 3.2% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##