* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 86 88 86 80 65 59 54 51 51 53 55 58 60 61 64 V (KT) LAND 75 83 74 79 62 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 76 78 62 54 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 3 9 13 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 4 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 29 318 256 206 210 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 27.9 27.7 29.9 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 145 143 166 161 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 70 64 56 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 20 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 40 41 48 48 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 61 56 48 50 53 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 0 0 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 108 -6 8 -6 -29 -137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.0 28.9 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.2 110.8 111.3 111.6 111.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 17 8 6 19 18 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -17. -22. -25. -26. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 13. 11. 5. -10. -16. -21. -24. -24. -22. -20. -17. -15. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.9 108.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 54.5% 41.4% 36.1% 31.0% 17.7% 18.2% 13.1% 10.0% Logistic: 24.9% 23.0% 16.0% 5.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.8% 2.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.8% 22.2% 17.9% 12.4% 6.3% 6.5% 4.4% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##