* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 71 74 72 56 50 47 46 47 50 52 55 56 59 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 71 66 64 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 65 67 61 55 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 3 12 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 2 2 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 21 50 43 24 112 216 213 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.3 28.9 31.1 27.7 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 158 159 155 173 142 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 4 4 5 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 78 77 66 59 51 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 22 20 15 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 48 52 35 42 39 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 72 89 65 36 70 36 26 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 10 5 -4 -2 4 11 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 199 261 179 42 15 44 -155 -268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.7 25.0 27.6 30.2 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 28 31 20 20 13 30 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -5. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 22. 6. -0. -3. -4. -3. -0. 2. 5. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -10.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.5% 57.5% 44.5% 32.3% 20.1% 19.2% 43.6% 14.5% Logistic: 52.3% 77.6% 63.9% 50.8% 8.9% 36.1% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 17.1% 29.1% 17.3% 6.4% 1.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 54.8% 41.9% 29.8% 10.2% 19.7% 14.9% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##