* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 55 55 56 55 47 42 44 37 28 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 55 55 56 55 47 42 44 37 28 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 51 51 51 52 49 41 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 19 13 10 3 7 12 22 39 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 5 -1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 242 245 241 245 275 240 203 216 248 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.9 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.4 21.3 19.2 18.3 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 125 121 115 106 98 78 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 32 33 39 45 47 47 43 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 15 13 12 13 12 15 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -53 -75 -85 -65 -35 -13 -5 -12 -21 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -16 -11 0 14 35 30 52 79 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 5 3 6 4 20 7 50 -14 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 770 906 1043 1159 1275 1484 1707 1769 1404 1192 1023 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.3 34.4 36.9 39.9 43.1 46.3 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.2 165.0 165.4 165.8 165.8 164.8 162.9 158.5 151.8 145.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 12 15 20 26 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -11. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -11. -23. -25. -27. -31. -35. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -0. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. -3. -8. -6. -13. -22. -34. -45. -57. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.3 163.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.6 62.3 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##