* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 54 51 49 46 38 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 54 51 49 46 38 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 49 46 44 41 39 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 36 30 22 12 4 9 12 21 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 207 200 194 185 133 51 49 28 10 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.4 24.6 22.5 20.7 19.0 19.0 18.7 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 114 105 98 86 79 75 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 97 92 85 80 73 69 67 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 1 1 5 4 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 51 48 46 52 56 59 59 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 26 25 25 23 20 17 14 8 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 10 -3 6 10 -22 -42 -4 4 28 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 22 9 19 1 -19 -9 -13 -17 31 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 13 1 -2 0 -3 1 4 9 29 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 389 345 304 271 238 175 141 179 172 143 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 38.7 39.0 39.3 39.5 40.1 40.6 41.2 42.0 43.1 44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.3 69.6 69.9 69.8 69.1 67.9 66.0 63.6 61.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 7 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -35. -32. -33. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -21. -31. -42. -55. -55. -58. -62. -67. -69. -68. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.4 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 54 51 49 46 38 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 52 50 47 39 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 48 40 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 37 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT