* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 60 58 57 59 60 59 59 53 42 27 22 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 60 58 57 59 60 59 59 53 42 27 22 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 66 63 61 57 55 52 51 51 47 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 20 23 22 23 21 12 7 11 16 28 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 3 2 1 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 216 211 216 222 228 233 232 274 251 232 214 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.6 24.7 24.2 21.6 20.0 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 134 133 131 130 125 120 110 106 80 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 36 36 35 37 36 46 47 53 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 17 17 15 14 14 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 18 3 0 -14 -45 -75 -47 -19 -7 9 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 20 29 15 32 20 -9 7 19 29 37 55 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 12 9 9 12 8 6 9 15 32 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 185 198 235 323 597 880 1140 1380 1605 1861 1546 1194 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.1 27.0 29.1 31.2 33.4 35.8 38.6 41.8 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.7 156.0 157.4 158.7 160.0 162.3 164.0 165.2 165.7 165.2 163.6 161.0 158.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 14 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 23 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -25. -31. -33. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -16. -15. -16. -16. -22. -33. -48. -53. -57. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.0 154.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##