* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 29 33 37 39 38 37 36 35 37 37 38 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 29 33 37 39 38 37 36 35 37 37 38 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 20 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 280 275 286 285 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.4 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 148 150 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 38 39 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 42 43 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 5 5 17 30 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 757 856 966 1089 1216 1468 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.9 166.3 167.7 169.1 170.5 173.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 80 61 46 32 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 164.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.30 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##