* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 81 74 72 65 62 61 63 61 60 58 56 55 54 52 51 V (KT) LAND 95 87 81 74 72 65 62 61 63 61 60 58 56 55 54 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 80 74 69 64 61 60 60 58 58 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 13 15 16 19 10 9 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 6 4 2 5 1 -4 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 215 208 197 199 210 209 203 230 239 263 291 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.4 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.3 25.3 24.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 128 131 133 129 134 132 128 127 117 109 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 35 37 38 38 38 36 38 39 41 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 19 20 17 18 16 16 18 19 17 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 37 39 31 20 18 0 -14 -44 -52 -29 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 26 26 19 24 20 38 30 13 14 7 32 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 9 6 3 3 2 7 5 14 4 9 7 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 732 596 466 351 269 173 192 357 618 904 1178 1432 1696 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.4 23.7 25.2 26.9 29.0 31.2 33.4 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.1 150.4 151.7 153.0 155.7 158.4 160.9 163.0 164.7 166.0 166.9 167.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 12 8 3 12 3 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. -37. -40. -42. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -21. -23. -30. -33. -34. -32. -34. -35. -37. -39. -40. -41. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.4 147.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 872.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 34 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##