* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 43 45 46 50 51 57 53 53 50 47 38 28 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 31 34 37 38 44 40 40 36 34 24 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 31 30 32 32 32 30 29 31 32 31 30 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 35 35 39 45 50 39 20 14 6 5 18 15 14 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 4 -5 -2 1 -3 -3 -5 0 -5 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 227 217 224 237 239 230 225 209 208 222 191 92 56 73 49 20 40 SST (C) 30.4 30.0 28.9 29.0 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.1 24.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 174 172 152 154 143 138 137 133 128 126 120 117 113 114 112 99 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 154 134 135 122 113 108 103 99 98 94 91 88 89 89 82 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 3 2 3 1 1 0 4 2 5 3 7 5 6 2 700-500 MB RH 59 53 49 44 42 49 51 48 47 42 40 36 37 37 41 48 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 29 30 32 33 40 37 35 33 31 26 22 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 46 4 0 4 1 10 20 7 21 -20 -19 -17 -14 -17 -1 200 MB DIV 65 85 97 66 55 70 25 45 35 19 -15 -29 -16 -30 -19 -9 -2 700-850 TADV 28 23 11 27 17 -1 -2 2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 6 6 8 LAND (KM) -125 -39 -54 -37 9 185 250 251 235 229 213 204 194 194 186 176 155 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.5 33.5 34.4 35.3 36.5 37.3 37.8 38.2 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.8 81.3 79.8 78.1 76.4 73.8 72.6 72.3 72.2 72.1 72.1 72.1 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 14 9 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 18 22 26 19 13 17 17 15 13 7 4 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -19. -21. -22. -21. -22. -25. -25. -24. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 12. 8. 6. 2. -2. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -0. 1. 5. 6. 12. 8. 8. 5. 2. -7. -17. -24. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.4 82.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 10.1% 6.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 31 34 37 38 44 40 40 36 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 38 41 44 45 51 47 47 43 41 31 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 42 45 46 52 48 48 44 42 32 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 42 48 44 44 40 38 28 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT