* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 77 75 70 65 68 68 64 62 58 51 45 42 36 34 V (KT) LAND 70 52 42 36 33 32 27 30 30 26 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 52 41 36 33 34 35 37 36 35 36 38 40 41 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 17 29 34 43 52 42 21 20 9 5 11 17 8 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 1 -1 3 -5 -2 0 -6 -4 -6 -2 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 240 234 203 216 232 230 227 211 222 211 211 201 38 53 47 74 350 SST (C) 29.8 30.4 30.0 28.9 28.9 27.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.1 24.2 24.3 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 173 172 153 152 126 132 128 125 122 116 109 103 96 96 103 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 162 154 136 133 106 106 101 98 96 92 87 83 79 79 83 84 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 7 6 3 4 1 2 0 3 2 5 4 7 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 61 53 49 43 44 48 45 45 46 45 45 43 46 47 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 29 28 30 35 36 34 33 31 27 27 27 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 56 46 8 7 -2 24 20 13 -10 -13 -19 -30 -33 -21 7 200 MB DIV 62 66 90 92 60 61 39 53 -4 22 11 -11 -31 -28 -11 -5 8 700-850 TADV 13 33 20 11 20 2 2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 3 5 0 LAND (KM) -18 -114 -44 -44 -36 80 203 206 208 190 209 204 213 211 218 253 299 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.5 34.5 36.1 37.1 37.7 38.2 38.7 39.0 39.3 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.0 82.7 81.4 79.7 78.0 74.9 73.4 72.9 72.6 72.4 71.9 71.1 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 16 12 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 5 16 23 26 4 8 8 12 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 7. 8. 5. 3. -1. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 5. -0. -5. -2. -2. -6. -8. -12. -19. -25. -28. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.2 84.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 17.0% 11.6% 8.8% 8.7% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 8.5% 7.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 8.5% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 52 42 36 33 32 27 30 30 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 59 53 50 49 44 47 47 43 41 37 17 17 17 17 17 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 57 56 51 54 54 50 48 44 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 56 51 54 54 50 48 44 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT