* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 110 106 99 87 75 67 62 60 58 58 55 54 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 110 113 110 106 99 87 75 67 62 60 58 58 55 54 53 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 106 99 92 81 72 66 63 61 59 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 9 8 9 12 14 15 20 17 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 4 3 5 5 3 2 4 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 188 196 204 186 182 203 205 213 225 240 259 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.9 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 130 129 128 134 131 134 134 133 129 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 35 36 38 40 42 40 39 40 37 37 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 21 19 18 16 16 15 16 15 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 52 46 40 39 28 27 2 -7 -25 -52 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 27 24 23 15 19 19 28 29 0 12 2 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 10 10 5 10 3 9 7 13 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 981 846 712 575 441 225 114 124 267 497 761 1028 1301 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.9 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.6 27.2 29.0 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.8 148.0 149.3 150.6 153.2 155.9 158.5 160.9 163.0 165.0 166.8 168.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 7 4 3 9 7 16 5 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -30. -37. -42. -46. -50. -52. -53. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 0. -4. -11. -23. -35. -43. -48. -50. -52. -52. -55. -56. -57. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.6 145.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1015.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 0.9% 2.8% 1.8% 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##