* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 81 77 74 68 65 61 63 58 61 66 66 66 66 66 64 V (KT) LAND 90 84 81 77 74 68 65 61 63 58 61 66 66 66 66 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 79 75 71 65 60 57 56 57 61 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 8 8 11 7 9 7 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 6 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 162 178 189 198 169 189 191 205 221 218 257 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.5 26.3 26.9 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.4 26.5 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 130 126 130 128 134 131 134 134 138 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 37 38 38 38 39 41 40 40 41 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 21 21 19 19 16 18 15 16 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 49 49 46 37 40 24 26 0 7 -12 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 24 34 36 23 30 12 4 14 19 4 22 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 7 7 9 2 10 6 10 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1236 1102 968 834 701 444 232 118 124 222 445 674 904 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.0 26.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.1 144.4 145.6 146.8 148.1 150.6 153.2 155.8 158.4 160.8 163.0 165.0 167.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 3 2 7 2 8 6 17 7 11 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -6. -10. -8. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -13. -16. -22. -25. -29. -27. -32. -29. -24. -24. -24. -24. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 143.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 826.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##