* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 40 39 40 42 43 44 43 43 43 43 45 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 40 39 40 42 43 44 43 43 43 43 45 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 45 42 41 40 40 42 45 47 48 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 14 12 16 15 15 14 12 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 5 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 239 262 272 269 246 268 257 302 286 289 283 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 145 148 147 147 152 151 150 152 150 149 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 37 38 39 40 38 37 38 36 38 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 24 33 37 44 42 37 28 12 4 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 5 0 -7 21 -1 -10 -38 1 -18 -16 -17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -4 0 0 -4 -4 -1 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 102 167 273 395 508 653 874 1099 1312 1515 1700 1897 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.7 156.8 158.1 159.3 161.9 164.6 167.3 169.8 172.0 174.1 176.0 178.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 36 47 58 39 26 62 48 24 25 31 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 154.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 -1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.8% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##