* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 92 89 85 76 71 64 60 56 57 57 57 59 56 54 50 V (KT) LAND 105 97 92 89 85 76 71 64 60 56 57 57 57 59 56 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 92 87 83 74 68 61 56 53 52 52 55 59 61 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 8 8 10 12 10 10 12 13 16 20 26 28 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 169 186 209 207 205 191 189 198 204 215 231 229 231 230 244 247 266 SST (C) 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.5 26.7 26.7 26.2 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 136 139 133 128 130 133 132 135 133 139 131 130 126 125 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 36 36 37 37 37 40 43 41 40 42 42 43 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 22 22 19 20 17 15 14 15 15 14 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 51 49 49 51 41 38 24 26 5 3 6 1 -30 -41 -51 200 MB DIV 24 21 21 4 10 19 23 -4 5 2 18 -1 24 1 10 0 -22 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 2 1 9 7 9 3 8 9 8 7 16 9 14 3 LAND (KM) 1501 1377 1254 1125 997 732 456 239 118 118 201 413 637 837 1051 1271 1489 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.8 142.9 144.1 145.3 147.8 150.5 153.2 155.8 158.4 160.8 163.0 164.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 12 15 6 4 4 8 7 19 7 13 6 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -27. -32. -37. -41. -43. -44. -45. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -11. -13. -11. -12. -11. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -16. -20. -29. -34. -41. -45. -49. -48. -48. -48. -46. -49. -51. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.1 140.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1001.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 65 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##