* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 77 72 62 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 77 72 62 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 75 70 59 48 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 18 18 19 19 23 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 7 9 14 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 250 247 239 266 306 308 324 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 25.8 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.1 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 115 107 103 100 93 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 101 94 91 87 81 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 37 40 41 41 43 46 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 29 27 25 18 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -30 -54 -64 -55 -76 -85 -98 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 20 12 -2 -38 -51 -35 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 21 17 13 11 14 9 14 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1358 1363 1393 1476 1576 1826 1765 1495 1224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.4 37.2 37.8 38.3 39.0 39.7 40.7 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 44.2 42.1 39.9 37.6 33.3 29.8 26.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 19 18 16 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 16 CX,CY: 12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -29. -38. -45. -49. -53. -57. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -14. -24. -33. -35. -37. -38. -38. -36. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -28. -45. -64. -79. -84. -87. -89. -90. -91. -91. -90. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 35.6 46.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 816.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 09/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 4( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 81 77 72 62 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 80 75 65 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 67 50 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 65 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 61 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT