* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 102 96 92 81 75 66 63 55 52 51 50 48 49 48 49 V (KT) LAND 115 109 102 96 92 81 75 66 63 55 52 51 50 48 49 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 101 94 88 78 70 63 57 52 49 46 44 44 44 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 6 5 9 9 10 12 13 17 21 25 27 26 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 3 4 3 2 4 0 1 3 0 1 1 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 130 162 181 187 182 178 182 175 180 183 204 204 222 226 247 273 286 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.5 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 133 135 139 127 130 131 135 133 134 135 139 130 131 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 37 38 39 40 41 41 42 43 40 38 37 43 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 24 20 21 18 19 16 15 15 15 14 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 53 48 51 49 45 49 37 27 28 11 15 2 -13 -30 -35 200 MB DIV 0 25 21 19 10 15 26 23 11 4 -4 22 0 -8 2 10 20 700-850 TADV 4 2 -3 0 2 3 9 7 7 5 6 5 7 8 7 6 3 LAND (KM) 1640 1523 1407 1288 1170 913 648 377 198 110 109 263 473 667 868 1095 1307 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.3 140.4 141.5 142.6 143.7 146.1 148.6 151.3 153.8 156.4 158.9 161.3 163.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 6 10 15 1 7 7 8 12 13 5 12 7 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -25. -33. -41. -46. -51. -54. -54. -55. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -8. -12. -13. -12. -11. -12. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -23. -34. -40. -49. -52. -60. -63. -64. -65. -67. -66. -67. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.9 139.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1061.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 38 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##