* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 110 104 100 90 80 73 68 61 60 59 59 62 64 63 65 V (KT) LAND 120 116 110 104 100 90 80 73 68 61 60 59 59 62 64 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 109 102 95 85 74 66 59 54 51 50 49 51 53 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 6 3 5 7 7 9 8 12 11 14 14 13 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 2 6 7 7 5 5 3 2 4 7 3 0 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 114 139 162 173 171 171 181 172 178 164 191 181 190 207 198 229 283 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 131 133 135 138 126 130 132 135 135 133 136 138 130 130 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 41 39 37 36 37 39 42 42 43 44 42 41 42 44 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 24 25 23 21 20 19 16 17 17 17 18 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 54 59 60 56 51 50 48 30 32 16 10 18 15 -5 -22 200 MB DIV 19 13 17 11 11 22 40 28 6 2 2 23 5 1 -11 12 -10 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 11 7 9 6 7 5 10 8 5 6 0 LAND (KM) 1769 1652 1535 1418 1300 1064 796 534 285 143 96 133 320 525 727 914 1099 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.1 139.2 140.3 141.4 142.5 144.7 147.2 149.7 152.3 154.8 157.3 159.8 162.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 3 6 10 13 3 4 9 8 24 9 8 12 7 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -27. -37. -44. -51. -56. -59. -60. -60. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -20. -30. -40. -47. -52. -59. -60. -61. -61. -58. -56. -57. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.7 138.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1136.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##