* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 96 93 91 79 65 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 98 96 93 91 79 65 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 85 72 60 50 42 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 16 14 17 17 22 30 25 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 5 3 7 11 14 4 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 262 251 244 242 270 305 306 330 340 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.1 27.2 26.2 24.7 24.2 23.3 23.0 22.9 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 128 129 119 106 101 95 93 92 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 112 114 105 93 88 83 81 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -54.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 33 34 38 41 40 41 42 47 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 29 30 27 23 16 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -6 -14 -22 -41 -52 -56 -63 -83 -61 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 50 35 30 16 3 -24 -40 -28 -46 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 24 24 25 27 9 14 0 8 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1493 1442 1407 1418 1452 1634 1865 1762 1481 1208 929 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.4 35.2 35.9 36.6 37.7 38.5 39.1 39.8 40.8 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 47.7 46.1 44.1 42.0 37.4 33.2 29.6 26.4 23.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -32. -42. -52. -59. -63. -66. -70. -72. -73. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -5. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -4. -9. -20. -28. -33. -40. -41. -41. -39. -38. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -21. -35. -56. -73. -87. -96. -97. -97. -96. -94. -91. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 33.6 49.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 965.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 12( 44) 7( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 96 93 91 79 65 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 94 92 80 66 45 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 91 79 65 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 76 62 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 69 55 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 72 58 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 96 87 81 77 63 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS