* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 103 100 97 87 77 60 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 105 103 100 97 87 77 60 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 106 106 101 95 81 68 57 47 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 18 17 9 18 9 25 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 10 6 2 11 10 17 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 273 254 247 243 245 307 299 335 351 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.2 24.8 24.9 24.2 23.1 23.1 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 137 135 128 129 106 106 101 93 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 118 117 112 113 94 93 87 82 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 34 35 39 42 41 40 45 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 31 31 28 27 21 14 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 1 -7 -15 -27 -57 -61 -63 -85 -94 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 43 50 44 27 17 -14 -55 -38 -43 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 16 27 29 28 15 16 -1 6 18 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1526 1471 1428 1407 1406 1528 1746 1953 1650 1387 1118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.8 34.5 35.3 36.0 37.3 38.0 38.4 39.1 40.0 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.6 49.2 47.8 45.9 44.1 39.6 35.4 31.7 28.3 25.3 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 17 18 18 16 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 9 8 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -13. -22. -34. -45. -56. -63. -68. -71. -75. -77. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -10. -21. -28. -37. -38. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -18. -28. -45. -66. -82. -96. -98. -98. -95. -93. -90. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 33.1 50.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 991.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 25( 45) 20( 56) 10( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 103 100 97 87 77 60 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 102 99 96 86 76 59 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 95 85 75 58 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 82 72 55 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 66 49 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 81 71 54 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 105 103 94 88 84 74 57 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS