* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 61 69 77 76 74 71 69 62 53 48 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 61 47 55 54 52 49 47 40 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 53 42 48 51 51 48 43 38 34 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 9 9 12 13 17 29 36 44 46 41 25 14 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 6 0 6 0 -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 288 322 309 290 277 230 243 216 231 233 218 208 212 208 356 19 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.7 29.4 29.1 29.1 28.0 28.1 27.0 25.0 22.2 19.8 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 167 170 173 161 156 156 137 137 122 102 84 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 149 147 147 150 168 144 139 135 114 110 97 83 72 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 8 9 4 6 4 5 2 2 1 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 66 65 63 64 58 47 38 40 50 48 42 41 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 16 17 19 21 22 26 26 28 29 30 28 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 75 69 52 24 42 27 51 15 -8 10 -8 26 -2 -2 -93 200 MB DIV 43 38 52 62 53 41 60 57 83 24 24 49 24 6 -15 -37 -29 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 4 4 15 3 6 -11 0 6 9 -9 -4 4 3 17 LAND (KM) 290 341 391 416 377 217 29 21 74 203 422 414 328 241 170 113 52 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.7 26.3 27.8 29.6 31.5 33.4 35.1 36.7 37.9 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.3 86.9 85.8 83.8 81.0 77.5 73.6 70.8 69.3 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 7 8 10 14 16 18 16 11 7 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 43 38 40 45 56 32 24 40 58 17 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 33. 32. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -8. -14. -21. -27. -28. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 11. 14. 14. 15. 10. 3. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 31. 39. 47. 46. 44. 41. 39. 32. 23. 18. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 87.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 21.3% 12.3% 8.8% 8.5% 12.0% 14.3% 23.0% Logistic: 10.8% 44.4% 34.8% 25.0% 8.8% 25.7% 30.0% 7.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 22.3% 16.0% 11.5% 5.8% 12.6% 14.8% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 44 51 61 47 55 54 52 49 47 40 31 26 20 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 47 57 43 51 50 48 45 43 36 27 22 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 41 51 37 45 44 42 39 37 30 21 16 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 41 27 35 34 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT