* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 106 101 98 89 80 63 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 107 106 101 98 89 80 63 44 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 108 107 102 97 86 72 60 50 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 18 20 18 16 15 21 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 6 4 5 13 12 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 284 264 247 238 232 269 327 311 345 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.1 25.9 24.8 24.2 23.5 23.3 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 134 131 128 116 106 101 95 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 117 114 112 101 92 87 82 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 35 34 35 41 40 43 44 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 30 29 31 30 29 23 17 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -27 -2 -15 -19 -49 -53 -74 -73 -96 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 53 41 29 22 -15 -36 -50 -44 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 16 26 25 24 12 15 0 16 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1573 1514 1464 1425 1404 1452 1627 1850 1835 1604 1378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.3 33.9 34.7 35.4 36.9 37.8 38.3 38.8 39.4 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 50.3 49.0 47.3 45.6 41.5 37.4 33.6 30.4 27.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 17 18 16 14 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -20. -32. -43. -53. -61. -65. -69. -72. -74. -75. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -7. -5. -4. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -9. -18. -26. -34. -35. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -4. -7. -16. -25. -42. -61. -78. -93. -96. -95. -91. -89. -87. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 32.6 51.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1012.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 3.6% 2.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 23.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 21( 58) 11( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 107 106 101 98 89 80 63 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 98 95 86 77 60 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 96 93 84 75 58 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 83 74 57 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 77 68 51 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 107 98 92 89 83 74 57 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 107 106 97 91 87 78 61 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS