* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 92 86 79 69 60 53 52 52 51 53 56 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 105 98 92 86 79 69 60 53 52 52 51 53 56 56 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 93 86 81 72 65 59 56 55 55 57 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 16 17 19 20 18 10 14 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 13 9 7 3 3 1 5 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 263 265 240 252 260 246 228 223 223 230 241 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 130 131 137 139 143 147 148 149 148 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 37 38 38 36 36 36 38 35 32 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 20 19 18 17 14 12 12 12 11 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -8 0 8 12 25 30 53 59 50 41 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -3 -7 11 18 0 3 28 2 -18 -22 -28 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 0 6 0 7 2 -8 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 628 523 425 327 138 25 207 333 367 508 736 977 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.1 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.8 149.8 150.8 151.7 153.7 155.7 157.8 159.9 162.1 164.4 167.0 169.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 6 7 8 8 16 24 36 31 35 66 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -38. -38. -39. -40. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -26. -36. -45. -52. -53. -53. -54. -52. -49. -49. -48. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.3 147.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1082.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##