* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 110 104 96 82 70 60 56 55 52 50 52 52 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 115 114 110 104 96 82 70 60 56 55 52 50 52 52 53 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 107 99 93 81 71 64 61 57 54 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 7 12 15 14 18 20 17 12 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 5 9 3 8 1 3 2 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 231 241 219 228 259 245 244 212 230 202 239 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 131 132 135 138 142 144 149 148 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 36 37 36 36 36 37 37 38 36 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 20 18 17 16 14 14 15 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 6 5 11 12 28 31 46 71 72 63 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 18 0 0 2 9 5 10 15 -14 -40 -34 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 5 -1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 850 750 650 546 442 248 102 103 296 358 432 618 846 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.7 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.7 148.6 149.6 150.6 152.6 154.6 156.6 158.6 160.7 163.0 165.6 168.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 6 7 7 8 14 21 32 44 30 47 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. -47. -49. -49. -50. -51. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -11. -10. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -19. -33. -45. -55. -59. -60. -63. -65. -63. -63. -62. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.0 146.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1185.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 1.2% 4.0% 4.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##