* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 47 54 62 63 66 66 65 62 53 49 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 47 54 42 45 49 48 48 45 35 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 40 45 37 42 45 45 42 39 35 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 13 8 10 11 11 15 18 31 42 46 46 50 44 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 6 -1 5 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 272 289 300 279 248 299 274 272 238 237 229 230 232 233 235 244 255 SST (C) 29.9 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.7 29.3 29.3 28.8 27.8 28.2 28.8 28.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 169 169 169 166 169 172 173 159 159 150 134 139 147 145 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 153 148 146 144 148 153 166 142 140 129 113 114 118 116 100 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 8 9 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 68 67 65 66 63 66 55 42 36 38 49 52 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 13 13 15 15 20 20 23 25 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 67 70 79 81 76 55 28 -9 31 22 28 10 -14 -11 -47 -65 -80 200 MB DIV 30 20 34 54 41 43 40 31 39 35 45 40 33 29 17 9 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -2 0 -1 3 0 13 1 -1 -16 -17 6 11 7 11 20 LAND (KM) 195 243 294 346 387 401 270 135 -63 155 218 363 582 631 595 570 480 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.0 26.1 27.3 28.6 30.0 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.8 86.3 86.6 87.0 86.8 85.7 84.3 82.0 78.9 75.5 72.1 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 11 14 16 16 14 11 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 37 37 40 39 43 28 20 46 44 30 31 36 56 58 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -5. -11. -18. -27. -33. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. 1. 0. 5. 6. 8. 10. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 24. 32. 33. 36. 36. 35. 32. 23. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 85.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.5% 10.1% 7.1% 6.7% 10.3% 12.5% 27.8% Logistic: 3.2% 22.7% 12.3% 4.9% 1.8% 7.1% 16.4% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 12.9% 7.6% 4.0% 2.9% 5.8% 9.6% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 40 47 54 42 45 49 48 48 45 35 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 45 52 40 43 47 46 46 43 33 30 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 41 48 36 39 43 42 42 39 29 26 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 40 28 31 35 34 34 31 21 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT