* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 108 106 102 92 80 70 66 61 60 59 61 62 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 100 106 108 106 102 92 80 70 66 61 60 59 61 62 64 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 104 99 95 85 76 70 64 60 59 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 4 4 8 13 10 10 7 10 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 5 7 3 7 0 1 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 149 178 186 225 220 260 243 245 191 245 206 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 128 129 131 137 140 143 145 150 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 39 37 36 35 35 37 38 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 16 13 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 28 10 5 12 20 33 44 62 65 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 33 28 6 0 -3 14 1 -1 4 -21 -17 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 6 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 -3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1038 940 842 747 652 445 238 113 157 358 466 566 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.9 146.8 147.7 148.6 150.6 152.7 154.8 156.9 159.0 161.2 163.3 165.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 2 4 7 15 20 42 44 30 40 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. -34. -35. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -13. -13. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 6. 2. -8. -20. -30. -34. -39. -40. -41. -39. -38. -36. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.3 145.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 956.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 50.0% 18.0% 37.6% 43.4% 20.5% 18.5% 1.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.6% 6.0% 12.5% 14.5% 6.8% 6.2% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##