* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 48 55 64 68 71 71 72 64 57 49 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 48 55 50 50 52 52 53 45 38 31 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 47 45 46 50 52 49 43 38 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 12 9 14 9 13 15 25 37 43 46 38 47 54 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 297 279 283 291 271 275 280 271 248 233 223 229 232 246 265 288 304 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.0 30.3 31.1 29.0 29.3 29.1 27.8 27.4 28.1 28.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 169 169 169 166 169 171 172 153 159 156 136 131 140 146 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 147 149 147 143 147 155 172 135 141 138 120 114 121 125 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -53.5 -54.2 -55.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 7 5 6 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 65 67 64 66 62 65 56 45 40 41 47 53 49 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 11 14 14 17 18 20 22 24 22 21 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 70 75 78 56 42 -11 27 8 20 -3 4 -12 -27 -101 -134 200 MB DIV 57 28 18 32 40 25 40 33 43 32 24 5 32 25 6 -24 -39 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -6 -1 0 3 5 2 11 -8 -9 -29 -17 -8 -3 -18 -24 LAND (KM) 142 189 240 291 342 419 305 143 -48 151 216 335 585 741 798 880 922 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.6 26.8 28.0 29.4 30.8 32.2 33.4 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.0 86.4 86.5 85.7 84.3 82.4 79.9 76.9 73.2 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 8 10 12 14 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 61 38 35 34 35 35 40 36 17 31 54 34 21 15 26 31 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 37. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -2. -8. -15. -21. -28. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 4. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 25. 34. 38. 41. 41. 42. 34. 27. 19. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.8 84.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.9% 9.8% 7.0% 6.5% 10.2% 12.1% 27.4% Logistic: 4.6% 34.2% 18.5% 10.5% 6.2% 21.9% 32.8% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 16.6% 9.5% 5.9% 4.2% 10.7% 15.0% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 40 48 55 50 50 52 52 53 45 38 31 21 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 46 53 48 48 50 50 51 43 36 29 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 42 49 44 44 46 46 47 39 32 25 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 34 41 36 36 38 38 39 31 24 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT