* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 113 108 103 93 86 78 72 69 64 63 59 59 59 59 61 V (KT) LAND 110 114 113 108 103 93 86 78 72 69 64 63 59 59 59 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 110 115 113 107 103 95 89 82 77 72 68 65 61 57 53 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 11 9 9 7 5 5 5 10 11 18 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 2 2 5 4 5 5 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 80 88 82 105 105 110 122 99 150 161 180 212 197 204 220 235 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.1 27.0 26.8 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 133 133 138 140 136 125 134 132 127 131 131 128 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 40 40 40 42 43 39 43 47 50 52 51 51 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 22 22 20 21 19 18 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 50 62 58 60 63 62 50 53 28 35 29 10 17 1 -10 200 MB DIV 0 5 4 -14 -10 -2 26 18 10 14 13 26 0 15 -1 2 -1 700-850 TADV -5 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 6 2 5 7 9 6 4 7 4 LAND (KM) 1767 1871 1977 2090 2205 1960 1719 1478 1224 979 733 471 242 143 178 288 522 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.9 131.2 132.5 133.8 136.2 138.5 140.8 143.2 145.5 147.8 150.3 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 4 4 9 15 10 0 9 4 1 4 7 4 16 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -45. -48. -49. -50. -52. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -2. -7. -17. -24. -32. -38. -41. -46. -47. -51. -51. -51. -51. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.0 128.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 962.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##