* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 87 87 83 76 68 62 57 54 54 54 54 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 87 87 83 76 68 62 57 54 54 54 54 55 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 88 87 82 75 68 62 57 54 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 4 5 9 11 17 14 13 11 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 1 4 0 8 4 8 3 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 24 112 181 189 231 214 257 239 240 224 237 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 135 129 127 129 131 136 139 142 146 149 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 45 44 42 40 39 37 37 38 40 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 18 19 19 17 17 16 13 12 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 38 43 38 4 7 17 32 40 54 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 46 31 31 25 3 6 11 -2 4 -8 6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 7 7 2 -2 1 -2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1229 1127 1026 933 841 651 443 234 93 149 367 518 652 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.6 17.2 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.2 145.1 146.0 146.8 148.6 150.6 152.7 154.8 156.9 159.0 161.1 163.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 6 3 1 4 6 14 19 41 45 30 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 12. 8. 1. -7. -13. -18. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.6 143.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 651.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.9% 48.3% 45.6% 45.5% 31.4% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.5% 17.1% 26.9% 26.6% 11.6% 8.5% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.0% 21.8% 24.2% 24.0% 14.3% 8.9% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##