* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 78 79 77 78 75 74 70 68 71 69 68 67 64 63 63 V (KT) LAND 75 76 78 79 77 78 75 74 70 68 71 69 68 67 64 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 77 77 78 77 77 77 75 74 75 73 69 65 60 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 11 15 16 10 11 11 1 4 4 7 14 13 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 -1 -4 0 -2 3 3 3 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 105 91 83 88 89 103 105 114 105 147 244 263 236 237 231 239 250 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.2 26.2 26.9 26.6 25.8 26.4 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 142 138 130 134 136 137 126 133 130 122 129 129 130 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 39 40 41 43 42 42 40 44 47 51 51 54 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 23 23 21 24 23 23 23 22 25 24 23 21 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 51 55 51 57 62 72 64 54 45 28 50 59 44 42 25 200 MB DIV 15 10 -1 11 10 -12 0 18 12 -4 18 5 17 23 33 33 11 700-850 TADV 3 -2 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 2 4 8 11 9 16 11 LAND (KM) 1553 1653 1759 1865 1975 2193 1994 1753 1510 1276 1031 795 516 292 173 141 239 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.3 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.1 128.4 129.8 131.1 133.6 135.9 138.2 140.5 142.7 145.0 147.2 149.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 14 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 17 11 3 7 13 11 0 8 3 0 3 4 8 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 5. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. 0. -1. -5. -7. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.9 125.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 648.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 -1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 25.0% 20.7% 15.7% 11.6% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.7% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 9.0% 7.6% 5.5% 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##