* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 104 103 102 97 96 97 95 90 82 74 66 60 48 42 40 V (KT) LAND 105 106 104 103 102 97 96 97 95 90 82 74 66 60 48 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 105 102 99 97 97 95 88 79 68 61 55 49 42 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 7 9 15 15 18 20 12 16 13 17 24 22 15 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 3 3 -2 5 2 7 9 9 7 5 2 -3 3 20 SHEAR DIR 359 1 3 339 335 311 285 264 249 255 305 327 331 357 41 138 195 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.2 24.9 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.1 20.6 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 148 149 146 138 127 117 106 107 98 93 87 81 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 120 120 122 126 124 118 110 101 92 91 84 80 76 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -52.9 -53.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 9 9 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 41 40 43 40 38 33 37 38 37 39 38 37 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 25 26 27 29 32 33 33 31 28 25 24 19 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -42 -37 -45 -47 -37 -14 19 0 -26 -46 -74 -91 -142 -110 -43 37 200 MB DIV -14 -14 -11 0 5 9 45 58 33 -5 -36 -18 -56 -38 -7 6 39 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 10 7 9 3 11 23 33 25 15 6 5 18 -18 -83 LAND (KM) 1700 1676 1651 1639 1621 1595 1519 1436 1397 1437 1591 1796 1920 1883 1727 1586 1471 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.3 31.5 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.4 36.6 37.2 37.4 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 55.3 55.4 55.1 54.8 53.4 51.3 48.8 45.8 42.3 38.7 35.3 32.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 9 11 12 15 15 14 12 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 32 30 28 24 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -22. -30. -38. -44. -50. -55. -62. -66. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 6. 1. -3. -5. -12. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -8. -10. -15. -23. -31. -39. -45. -57. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 30.6 55.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1033.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.3% 4.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 2.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 24( 59) 20( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 104 103 102 97 96 97 95 90 82 74 66 60 48 42 40 18HR AGO 105 104 102 101 100 95 94 95 93 88 80 72 64 58 46 40 38 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 99 94 93 94 92 87 79 71 63 57 45 39 37 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 89 88 89 87 82 74 66 58 52 40 34 32 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 81 80 81 79 74 66 58 50 44 32 26 24 IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 85 84 85 83 78 70 62 54 48 36 30 28 IN 12HR 105 106 104 95 89 85 84 85 83 78 70 62 54 48 36 30 28