* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 43 48 51 53 52 54 54 54 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 43 48 51 53 52 54 54 54 54 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 37 41 45 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 12 13 15 9 10 14 24 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 144 149 160 180 255 238 265 259 256 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.3 28.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 146 147 146 150 154 142 152 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 124 121 121 117 121 126 119 127 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 -1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 47 51 52 52 52 57 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -48 -56 -59 -47 -46 -22 -42 -21 -4 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 9 8 19 20 -3 -10 -1 19 30 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 -9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 642 554 467 388 309 202 167 201 364 426 457 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.7 34.5 35.7 36.9 38.1 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.6 72.5 73.2 73.9 74.7 74.5 73.5 71.4 68.2 65.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 6 9 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 27 26 25 30 41 49 39 40 23 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 70.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 9.9% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% 4.0% 4.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.0% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 36 39 43 48 51 53 52 54 54 54 54 57 59 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 36 40 45 48 50 49 51 51 51 51 54 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 36 41 44 46 45 47 47 47 47 50 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 34 37 39 38 40 40 40 40 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT