* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 60 65 65 62 59 54 50 47 45 48 50 51 53 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 60 65 65 62 59 54 50 47 45 48 50 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 52 53 57 58 55 53 49 44 40 39 39 40 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 6 6 2 3 6 13 16 15 12 11 13 14 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -6 -6 1 6 5 11 7 8 5 6 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 112 124 121 124 138 138 199 245 229 250 262 266 241 251 251 276 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 137 132 132 132 122 124 127 133 138 142 145 148 150 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 56 52 51 46 43 41 41 39 43 40 38 40 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 19 20 20 18 18 15 14 11 9 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 23 29 42 47 42 19 18 19 23 31 36 40 41 41 55 200 MB DIV 57 49 57 69 81 33 15 -2 -10 4 -20 6 -3 0 -16 -15 -15 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 1 7 6 0 -3 -2 -6 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1586 1505 1425 1341 1258 1075 880 669 449 229 19 141 308 376 501 692 899 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.2 19.0 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.0 141.6 142.3 143.0 144.6 146.4 148.4 150.5 152.6 154.9 157.2 159.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 13 7 7 4 0 0 3 10 16 23 33 31 48 50 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 9. 4. 0. -3. -5. -2. 1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 42.6% 35.5% 21.2% 17.6% 17.3% 24.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.3% 5.1% 3.6% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 17.0% 13.5% 8.3% 7.2% 6.0% 8.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##