* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 64 68 67 61 57 52 45 40 37 36 38 37 39 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 64 68 67 61 57 52 45 36 38 37 39 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 58 60 63 62 57 51 45 40 32 31 29 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 4 3 9 14 22 26 26 20 22 22 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -6 -4 -4 2 10 8 7 7 2 4 2 3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 92 112 119 130 140 196 201 244 243 255 270 271 252 257 268 261 261 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.8 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.2 28.0 27.9 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 142 135 131 134 129 128 130 132 136 145 144 152 149 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 56 53 50 46 44 43 41 42 45 42 44 44 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 22 23 22 19 18 17 14 12 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 34 32 36 47 56 15 24 9 17 26 40 48 53 57 58 200 MB DIV 57 65 53 62 60 46 24 12 -17 2 3 2 9 -1 6 3 2 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 2 1 6 9 6 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1647 1566 1485 1404 1325 1151 964 773 566 339 116 -2 211 329 456 622 808 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.5 141.1 141.8 142.4 143.9 145.6 147.4 149.4 151.6 153.8 156.0 158.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 19 12 6 8 2 2 5 9 11 19 28 35 40 52 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 17. 11. 7. 2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -12. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 139.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 43.3% 38.7% 25.8% 19.0% 17.5% 25.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.2% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 16.9% 14.3% 9.4% 7.0% 6.1% 8.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##