* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 77 79 81 82 86 86 87 83 79 73 62 47 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 77 79 81 82 86 86 87 83 79 73 62 47 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 73 78 82 82 83 85 86 85 78 70 61 51 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 4 10 6 13 16 25 30 32 31 41 49 55 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 1 4 4 5 0 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 252 285 353 42 35 360 332 315 272 282 261 267 263 289 301 328 315 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 28.3 28.2 26.8 25.2 22.9 21.3 19.7 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 149 148 146 141 135 141 141 124 110 95 88 82 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 127 126 123 120 119 117 114 120 120 107 97 85 80 76 72 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.9 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 42 42 44 42 40 40 41 45 44 42 45 47 53 55 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 23 24 24 25 25 29 30 33 34 34 35 33 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -50 -61 -38 -39 -29 -39 -31 -17 2 -8 -19 -30 -49 -78 -97 -99 200 MB DIV -6 -5 -10 -5 0 -10 -3 8 56 17 29 7 3 -23 -30 -47 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 7 7 6 4 6 19 33 27 38 47 40 LAND (KM) 1697 1692 1692 1692 1672 1595 1550 1510 1497 1412 1351 1310 1360 1527 1790 1360 907 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.4 29.9 30.3 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.5 33.2 34.1 35.1 36.5 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.3 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.2 55.9 55.0 53.3 50.9 48.3 45.2 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 4 3 4 7 9 11 13 16 19 21 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 28 28 27 24 18 9 13 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 6. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 26. 26. 27. 23. 19. 13. 2. -13. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.9 53.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 529.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 30.5% 21.4% 19.4% 12.3% 18.1% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 31.1% 30.9% 19.0% 8.2% 15.1% 8.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 5.1% 4.6% 9.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 22.1% 20.5% 13.4% 6.8% 11.4% 7.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 7( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 73 77 79 81 82 86 86 87 83 79 73 62 47 36 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 72 74 76 77 81 81 82 78 74 68 57 42 31 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 66 68 69 73 73 74 70 66 60 49 34 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 56 58 59 63 63 64 60 56 50 39 24 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT