* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 59 61 63 71 78 83 92 98 102 101 99 95 88 85 81 V (KT) LAND 55 56 59 61 63 71 78 83 92 98 102 101 99 95 88 85 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 60 63 72 82 89 92 94 94 89 84 78 72 67 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 14 9 9 8 7 8 6 5 18 23 30 32 25 22 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -2 4 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 219 215 196 211 225 306 29 345 310 293 288 284 263 246 237 240 244 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 26.9 25.5 24.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 141 149 152 154 151 149 147 142 139 138 140 124 110 103 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 128 134 135 133 127 123 120 117 116 117 118 105 95 89 81 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 62 59 55 52 49 45 42 38 42 41 49 52 56 55 55 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 19 21 24 25 28 31 34 35 37 39 39 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -2 3 -18 -23 -24 -28 -32 -4 3 27 31 30 2 -6 -8 -21 200 MB DIV 30 38 28 3 1 -3 -16 1 5 -20 25 28 49 14 37 49 37 700-850 TADV 33 21 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 6 5 10 15 29 15 2 LAND (KM) 1992 1907 1835 1772 1720 1661 1653 1648 1580 1537 1498 1425 1340 1257 1230 1269 1369 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.9 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.9 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.9 50.2 51.3 52.5 54.3 55.5 56.1 56.1 55.5 54.1 52.0 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 8 6 4 4 5 8 10 11 12 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 30 28 25 27 27 25 22 19 14 11 10 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 15 CX,CY: -6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 16. 23. 28. 37. 43. 47. 46. 44. 40. 33. 30. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 47.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.3% 10.9% 8.5% 8.0% 12.4% 13.7% 17.7% Logistic: 3.0% 11.7% 8.1% 5.3% 1.9% 9.6% 8.5% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.6% 6.5% 4.6% 3.3% 7.4% 7.5% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 59 61 63 71 78 83 92 98 102 101 99 95 88 85 81 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 61 69 76 81 90 96 100 99 97 93 86 83 79 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 63 70 75 84 90 94 93 91 87 80 77 73 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 55 62 67 76 82 86 85 83 79 72 69 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT