* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 59 63 68 76 80 79 81 83 79 77 80 80 81 84 84 V (KT) LAND 50 53 59 63 68 76 80 79 81 83 79 77 80 80 81 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 59 65 70 73 78 82 81 78 80 80 80 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 7 8 5 5 4 4 7 8 9 8 6 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 -2 0 1 0 -5 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 314 323 317 289 274 289 153 155 81 53 88 21 28 29 3 309 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.9 27.9 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.0 26.4 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 149 149 145 144 142 134 144 127 133 138 135 128 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 55 54 49 44 42 40 43 49 55 60 62 63 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 22 23 23 24 27 25 24 27 27 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 2 4 11 24 50 72 70 40 35 25 37 49 68 80 101 200 MB DIV 46 35 17 30 42 19 32 31 26 -22 -20 -10 1 34 57 57 83 700-850 TADV 6 1 2 5 5 5 4 11 3 -3 -1 0 -2 0 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 808 825 848 890 937 1030 1174 1340 1522 1729 1945 2163 1981 1698 1445 1233 1009 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.8 115.4 116.2 116.9 118.7 120.8 123.0 125.5 128.3 130.9 133.4 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 14 13 11 14 10 4 18 1 6 14 9 2 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 15. 13. 11. 13. 11. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 13. 18. 26. 30. 29. 31. 33. 29. 27. 30. 30. 31. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 32.4% 21.6% 15.9% 11.4% 16.5% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 15.3% 9.7% 5.9% 4.1% 8.3% 3.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 16.5% 10.5% 7.3% 5.2% 8.3% 8.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##